Top of main content

FX Trends: G10 currencies: Eyes on US trade policy

25 March 2025

Key takeaways

  • “Liberation Day” on 2 April is likely to see “safe haven” currencies, like the JPY and the CHF, outperforming “risk on” counterparts, like the AUD, the NZD and CAD.
  • In particular, the USD should fare better…
  • …if US President Trump’s hawkish trade policy rhetoric is matched by tariff action.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

Related insights

 

The BoE kept rates on hold in March, with a small hawkish surprise in the MPC vote split...[24 Mar]

 

The March FOMC was marked by little or no change, with policy rates and the ‘dots’ left…[20 Mar]

 

Political change in Germany and the broader debate around US outperformance have weighed...[17 Mar]

Listening to what you have to say about services matters to us. It's easy to share your ideas, stay informed and join the conversation. To improve the protection of customers' rights for the elderly or customers with special needs, the Bank provides relatives or friends to accompany them to participate in the communication to understand the product information, and provides enough time to consider whether to apply for related products. Please contact us via contact center (02)6616-6000 or email csr@hsbc.com.tw if any doubt/concern or further explanation is needed.
Credit card loss report service hotline (02)6616-6861
For information on the loss reporting services of the other credit card issuance institution,please click hereclick here to read more about loss reporting services on other credit card issuance institution.(THE BANKERS ASSOCIATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA)