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FX Trends: G10 currencies: A bumpy ride

3 February 2026

Key takeaways

  • The USD may face downward pressure in the weeks ahead amid structural concerns…
  • … but its path is likely to be volatile as headline risks could drive movement in both directions.
  • AUD-NZD and EUR-GBP could trend lower, given their respective domestic development.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. N/A = Not applicable, as we only provide short-term direction for those currency pairs from this issue. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

(from close on 3 January to 2 February*)
FX
Spot
200 dma

1-month %

change*

Support
Resistance
DXY
97.08 98.63 -1.37% 96.00 99.50
EUR-USD
1.1860 1.1613 1.20% 1.1612 1.2000
EUR-GBP 0.8652 0.8649 0.65% 0.8600 0.8700
GBP-USD 1.3708 1.3425 1.87% 1.3424 1.3868
USD-JPY
154.79 150.09 1.32% 152.10 157.80
EUR-JPY 183.58 174.33 0.14% 181.80 185.50
USD-CHF
0.7749 0.8034 2.26% 0.7500 0.7860
EUR-CHF 0.9190 0.9330 1.07% 0.9100 0.9330
USD-CAD 1.3633 1.3828 0.73% 1.3500 1.3740
AUD-USD
0.6963 0.6562 4.03% 0.6780 0.7094
AUD-NZD 1.1562 1.1186 0.35% 1.1400 1.1680
NZD-USD
0.6023 0.5868 4.42% 0.5868 0.6100
(from close on 3 January to 2 February*)
FX
DXY
Spot
97.08
200 dma
98.63

1-month %

change*

-1.37%
Support
96.00
Resistance 99.50
FX
EUR-USD
Spot
1.1860
200 dma
1.1613

1-month %

change*

1.20%
Support
1.1612
Resistance 1.2000
FX
EUR-GBP
Spot
0.8652
200 dma
0.8649

1-month %

change*

0.65%
Support
0.8600
Resistance 0.8700
FX
GBP-USD
Spot
1.3708
200 dma
1.3425

1-month %

change*

1.87%
Support
1.3424
Resistance 1.3868
FX
USD-JPY
Spot
154.79
200 dma
150.09

1-month %

change*

1.32%
Support
152.10
Resistance 157.80
FX
EUR-JPY
Spot
183.58
200 dma
174.33

1-month %

change*

0.14%
Support
181.80
Resistance 185.50
FX
USD-CHF
Spot
0.7749
200 dma
0.8034

1-month %

change*

2.26%
Support
0.7500
Resistance 0.7860
FX
EUR-CHF
Spot
0.9190
200 dma
0.9330

1-month %

change*

1.07%
Support
0.9100
Resistance 0.9330
FX
USD-CAD
Spot
1.3633
200 dma
1.3828

1-month %

change*

0.73%
Support
1.3500
Resistance 1.3740
FX
AUD-USD
Spot
0.6963
200 dma
0.6562

1-month %

change*

4.03%
Support
0.6780
Resistance 0.7094
FX
AUD-NZD
Spot
1.1562
200 dma
1.1186

1-month %

change*

0.35%
Support
1.1400
Resistance 1.1680
FX
NZD-USD
Spot
0.6023
200 dma
0.5868

1-month %

change*

4.42%
Support
0.5868
Resistance 0.6100

Note: *Priced as at 18:00 HKT on 2 February 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Explanation of terms

Spot: Spot refers to the current market price of a currency pair that is important for immediate transactions.

200 dma: 200-day simple moving average numberrepresents the average price of an index or a currency pair over the past 200 days.

Support (S), Resistance (R):Support and resistance are significant previous lows and highs plus retracement levels, based on historical price patterns of anindex or a currency pair. Support is a historical price level where a downtrend of a currency pair paused due to demand for the first currency quoted in the pair increasing, while resistance is a historical price level where an uptrend of a currency pair reversed amid demand for the second currency quoted in the pair increasing.

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 30 January 2026 Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

The indicators have been devised to track the net position of momentum traders, looking at hundreds of strategies, operating over many different time horizons. It considers time horizons of 5 days up to 260 days. An indicator level of +10 would indicate that the hundreds of different strategies have all lined up and gone long (i.e., buy the first currency quoted in the pair). Similarly, an indicator level of -10 indicates that all strategies are short (i.e., sell the first currency quoted in the pair).

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